6th Kondratieff Cycle - Digital Disruption or Extinction with Muda?

 

6^th Kondratieff Cycle - Digital Disruption or Extinction With Muda?

Historical Extinctions:

Cretaceous-Paleogene Extinction – 66 million years ago

Ordovician-Silurian Extinction – 485-444 million years ago (85% of Earth species)

Late Devonian Extinction – 385-359

Permian Triassic Extinction – 252 million years ago (96% extinction)

Triassic Jurassic Extinction – 201 million years ago (80% land life extinction)

Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction – 66million years ago (76% of land life)

Current Extinction – ongoing fast earth and marine species extinction

 

Majority of the mass extinctions are prolonged activities that gave opportunity to the survival of the species that progressed to the current stage.   Each Kondratieff cycle brought significant growth to mankind while improving the overall social improvement, it also witnessed the two world wars and many more destruction including the threat of nuclear war that took us to the edge of doomsday.

“The intriguing question of how much ecological change must be accrued before an extinction tipping point is reached” and with dooms day inched closer to 100 seconds and global warming of 1.5degree centigrade above pre-industrial era, zoonotic spill over, self-spreading vaccines, a virally spread immunocontraception, amenable vaccines, retreat from arms control are bring the tipping point closer.

What next?

The post cold war era during 5^th Kondratieff cycle gave us opportunity to collaborate across the globe and made significant progress in science, space and technology areas. The raise of super powers are those who ride the Kondratieff wave.  The significant progress in quantum computing, machine learning, artificial intelligence turbo charge engineering, manufacturing, finance, science and research areas and will results in new powers on global stage.

I think we are going to witness global scale power struggle again leading to sudden extinction; in case if we don’t expand our reach beyond earth, moon or solar system. Also the 6^th cycle is going to trigger much faster changes and the consequences will be devastating if we don’t ride the wave quicker.

If we don't fix the current muda of social, economical, power imbalance 6th Kondratieff will trigger extinction but not disruption. 

References:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction/#close

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_extinctions_in_the_Holocene

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4968755/

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

https://www.kondratieff.net/kondratieffcycles

Minimize Muda - Meta Cognition

One of the great challenges in the world is knowing enough about the subject to think you are right but not enough about the subject to know you are wrong [i]

Despite billions of neurons firing continuously, human brain sometimes doesn’t realize its incompetence resulting in denials. However, the competent suffer from curse of knowledge and underestimate themselves. Studies [ii]showed that lack of insight into their own errors that led to overly optimistic estimates among poor performers

Wisdom through learning process improves the meta cognition ( Assess->Evaluate->Plan->Apply Strategy/Monitor Performance->Reflect) resulting the better performance

All of us suffer from this and show packets of incompetency that comes out time to time. The social interaction and openness in communication during individual interactions give us opportunity to realize and adjust.

The matured team culture in agile environment reduce the muda due to shortcomings like this but again the expansion of digital world and remote working from different time zones limits the chances of gemba walk.

Lean agile leaders  especially agile transition environment should take in to consideration of the above problem for successful transformation with minimal muda.

---

[i] Quote by Neil DeGrasse Tyson

[ii] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19568317/