6th Kondratieff Cycle - Digital Disruption or Extinction With Muda?
Historical Extinctions:
Cretaceous-Paleogene Extinction – 66 million years
ago
Ordovician-Silurian Extinction – 485-444 million
years ago (85% of Earth species)
Late Devonian Extinction – 385-359
Permian Triassic Extinction – 252 million years ago (96%
extinction)
Triassic Jurassic Extinction – 201 million years ago (80% land
life extinction)
Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction – 66million years ago (76% of
land life)
Current Extinction – ongoing fast earth and marine species
extinction
Majority of the mass extinctions are
prolonged activities that gave opportunity to the survival of the species that
progressed to the current stage. Each Kondratieff cycle brought significant
growth to mankind while improving the overall social improvement, it also witnessed
the two world wars and many more destruction including the threat of nuclear
war that took us to the edge of doomsday.
“The
intriguing question of how much ecological change must be accrued before an
extinction tipping point is reached” and with dooms day inched closer to 100
seconds and global warming of 1.5degree centigrade above pre-industrial era, zoonotic
spill over, self-spreading vaccines, a virally spread immunocontraception, amenable
vaccines, retreat from arms control are bring the tipping point closer.
What next?
The post cold war era during 5th
Kondratieff cycle gave us opportunity to collaborate across the globe and made
significant progress in science, space and technology areas. The raise of super
powers are those who ride the Kondratieff wave. The significant progress in quantum computing,
machine learning, artificial intelligence turbo charge engineering, manufacturing,
finance, science and research areas and will results in new powers on global
stage.
I think we are going to
witness global scale power struggle again leading to sudden extinction; in case
if we don’t expand our reach beyond earth, moon or solar system. Also the 6th
cycle is going to trigger much faster changes and the consequences will be
devastating if we don’t ride the wave quicker.
References:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction/#close
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_extinctions_in_the_Holocene
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4968755/
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
https://www.kondratieff.net/kondratieffcycles
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